All we’ve been hearing about is that our oil reserves are near an all-time high… which I think is a good thing… since it puts a downward pressure on the price of oil… which means we consumers pay less for everything… which means greater corporate profits… etc., etc.

The “near an all-time high” has been an important investment theme, too, since it signals a glut of oil on the market.

I just read something, though, that scares the hell out of me.

Our “all-time high” is 3 billion barrels of crude… which sounds like a lot..

… but according to CNBC it’s only one month of global consumption… ?

That’s it?  That’s our big cushion?


I think we’re a ways away from the bull case… but given that statistic… and unless alternative energy sources become much more prevalent… you can see how the bull case will eventually (sadly) run rampant.

This will change at some point — and when it does, there will be a big pop — but right now YHOO can’t win a free kitten.

With a completely inferior position, Yahoo absolutely smashed the competition.

That is, they streamed the first live, free NFL game on Sunday.

It was between two small market teams.

It was also between two inferior teams… the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) and the Buffalo Bills (3-3).

It was also at 6:30am on the west coast, hardly what you would call “prime time.”

And it was also in London, England… where travel time and sparse crowds have translated into lethargic play in the past.

In other words, this game had all the exciting build up of a wet rag.

And yet, YHOO SMASHED results… 15 million unique viewers… vs. the 1 million viewers a region game like this normally gets on TV (source: Julia Boorstin, CNBC).

And yet — unbelievably — most of the press this morning had a negative bend.

Maybe Marissa Mayer needs to take a tip from Elon Musk:  If you can’t trust the press to get your story straight… TWEET!

A report out from Drexel Hamilton this morning about AAPL… his rationale sounds familar!


Drexel Hamilton analyst Brian White (formerly at Cantor Fitzgerald) initiates coverage on Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) with a Buy rating and a price target of $200.00 (Street High)

White highlighted:

  • The sharp correction in Apple’s stock this summer represents an attractive entry point as we believe fears surrounding China are overblown, concerns around difficult iPhone comparisons are short-sighted and the appreciation for the implications of this transformational super cycle is surprisingly muted.
  • Trading at just 8.2x our CY:16 EPS projection (ex-cash) and well below the 14.7x for the S&P 500 Index, Apple remains one of the most undervalued technology stocks in the world.
  • In our view, Apple’s successful transition to a larger form factor iPhone with the iPhone 6/6 Plus is the start of a sustainable upgrade cycle that has already catapulted the company to the #1 position in China’s smartphone market for the first time ever during 1Q:15 and we estimate the company will gain share in the global smartphone market in 2015.
  • Despite a slowing economic backdrop, our recent trip to China further supports our view that Apple fever is alive and well across the country. For example, we believe Apple is planning a bigger push into Tier 3-5 cities (80-90% of China’s households) across Mainland China over the next 12-24 months and the country’s 4G network is only 12% penetrated.
  • We expect the next big iPhone market that could open up for Apple is India and we view the country at a similar stage as China was for Apple in 2010. With a population of 1.25 billion, India is similar in size to China’s 1.36 billion and enjoys a wireless subscriber base of 980.8 million users as of the end of June (source: Telecom Regulatory Authority of India).
  • For the first time in five years, Apple entered into a new product category this year with the launch of Apple Watch in April, marking company’s initial push into the wearable technology market. We believe Apple Watch will be a major hit this holiday season.
  • In our view, Apple is innovating like never before with entry into the first new product category in five years with Apple Watch, the launch of new services such as Apple Pay, an expanded effort in the TV market with the all-new Apple TV and investment in big, new industries such as the auto market that we believe could eventually lead to an “Apple Car”.

Readers know I think Apple unleashing 11 million programmers onto TV is going to turn TV as we know it on its head… similar to what Apple did to the cell phone industry.

But I was stunned how surprised — excited — I was to see the new Apple TV Remote.


Because Apple just figured out how to unlock using the next generation of TV.

The last time they did that was with the gesture interface in the tablet category (iPad).

The time before they did that with the gesture interface in the cell category (iPhone).

And the time before that with the “thumb” interface in the digital “MP3” music player category (iPod).

So, the new Apple TV remote is a big deal.

While there is no doubt that Apple’s iOS development platform — and the legions of loyal Apple programmers creating zillions of phenomenal, mind-blowing, and ultimately incredibly useful apps — is the heart & soul behind Apple’s device success…

… in each case there had to be a simple, elegant interface to be able to use all of that goodness.

Today TV remotes absolutely suck.

Do I really need to prove that?  Just look at what’s sitting next to your TV.  Probably at least three remotes… all necessary at various points… and all with dozens of buttons that are impossible to use during nighttime viewing.

That is, unless you get one of the many universal remotes… which I swear are all harder to use than flying a small airplane.

It’s like using a PC… when all you really want is a Mac.

So from what I can tell from the announcement yesterday, Apple — once again — cracked the code on a huge new market.

They didn’t do it with some weird, “Minority Report” in-the-air, be-careful-if-you-sneeze-because-you’ll-change-channels interface.

They did it the Apple way:  Simple.  Elegant.  Useful.

As Tim Cook said, “The future of TV… is apps”… which is true…

… but what’s going to unlock that future is the new interface Apple just created, the new Apple TV Remote.

No one is really talking about what could potentially be MIND BLOWING at tomorrow’s big Apple announcement.

Sure, lots of talk about the next rev of iPhones.  And bigger iPads.  But Apple TV is relegated to back-of-the-bus stuff.

Why?  Because everyone had been expecting either (1) an actual Apple TV set, or (2) that whole “skinny” bundle cord-cutting thing… so they’re all somewhat disappointed.

But I think — rather, I’m hoping — everyone has it wrong.

And that is that Apple has created a product that will let Apple do to the TV experience that they did to the cell phone experience… and that is completely redefine what we expect from TV.

How will they do this?  By announcing “iOS TV”… essentially unleashing their 11 million or so iOS programmers on TV.

That would change the face of TV as we know it.

It’s been a really long time coming (here and here).  But, in about 24 hours, we could be saying once again, “Do you want to do this with your TV set?  Yep, there’s an app for that!”

Another oblivion morning… first five minutes were hell… I think the largest interday drop for the Dow ever.

To the point I was making in my, “Investing Is Easy, eh?” post this weekend… about it not being as bad for Chinese consumers as the headlines say… which means it’s not as bad for AAPL as the headlines infer:

Tim Cook made a rare statement about his business in China this morning.

“As you know, we don’t give mid-quarter updates and we rarely comment on moves in Apple stock,” Cook wrote. “But I know your question is on the minds of many investors.”

“I get updates on our performance in China every day, including this morning, and I can tell you that we have continued to experience strong growth for our business in China through July and August. Growth in iPhone activations has actually accelerated over the past few weeks, and we have had the best performance of the year for the App Store in China during the last 2 weeks.”

“Obviously I can’t predict the future, but our performance so far this quarter is reassuring. Additionally, I continue to believe that China represents an unprecedented opportunity over the long term as LTE penetration is very low and most importantly the growth of the middle class over the next several years will be huge,” Cook added.

However, I think Tim Cook did more than put the China situation into perspective for AAPL investors…

… I believe he may have single-handedly stabilized a global meltdown.


Wanted to take a moment to acknowledge the three American’s that put themselves in harm’s way.

Spencer Stone, Alek Skarlatos, and Anthony Sadler were on a train in Europe when they saw a terrorist trying to unjam his AK-47.

Instead of hiding, they lept into action… overpowered the terrorist… and saved the day.

Heroes, all of them.

P.S.  Reminds me of the solution a comedian came up with to stop this kind of thing:  Give everyone a baseball bat before they board a plane or train.  Now THAT would be a deterrent, the prospects of getting beaten to death by an angry mob!

One quick, disturbing observation:  Some of the news reports had a picture of the terrorist.  Seriously, he looks like a happy guy… a good guy.  It’s one thing recruiting mean-looking “terrorist” types… it’s going to be a whole other problem battling people that look like they could be a friend.