The Ten-Year Cycle

Posted: August 25, 2005 in Uncategorized
Had the honor of sitting dead center, second row, right behind Ross Perot, in a jammed packed Davies Symphony Hall, when Steve Jobs introduced the NeXT computer back in 1988.  (Thanks, Dan’l !)
 
In his stunning presentation (when he’s good, he’s great), Steve discussed the ten-year development cycle… that is, the next "big thing" usually happens in ten-year cycles.
 
Of course, since he didn’t cite any sources, I thought he was just making it all up ’cause it sounded good (when he’s bad, his infamous reality distortion effect is really bad).
 
Turns out, the tech world does cycle about every ten years!
 
Here are some important public milestones in tech:
 
     1962:      IBM goes public.
 
     1977:      Motorola goes public.
 
     1984/6:   Apple, Microsoft, Intel go public.
 
     1995:      Netscape and Nokia go public.
 
     2004/5:  Google and Baidu go public.
 
 
Interesting… stepping back and looking at the list, I can now understand why all the dot-com’s blew up… most had the misfortune of going public at the wrong part of the cycle! <grin><groan> 
 
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