Archive for December, 2005

     "Sure, I can.  And suddenly, there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host praising God, and saying, ‘Glory to God in the Highest, and on Earth peace, and goodwill toward men,’ " Linus says.
     "And that’s what Christmas is all about, Charlie Brown."
Peace and goodwill… still works for me.

Made In China

Posted: December 23, 2005 in Uncategorized
China first got my attention a few years ago when I heard they have more cell phones than the U.S. has people.
Must say, that stat still amazes me because it implies a certain level of technological and consumer sophistication that I was completely unaware of.
Indeed, I’m embarrassed to say, I had been thinking of China as the China I grew up with many decades ago.
No more, however.
Along these lines, something happened recently here at Microsoft that literally blew me away… really, my first firsthand exposure to the shear size of the Chinese market.
So here’s the terrible tease:  I can’t really say what it is else I’d be violating about two dozen confidentiality agreements.
But, suffice it to say, it is mind-boggling to see exactly why everyone is so excited about "Made In China"… there is no doubt China is the economic place-to-be.
I’ve officially changed the name of my blog (see top of page) in anticipation citing a quick quote by someone that thinks GOOG share price is crazy.
Seth Jayson of Motley Fool writes:
     I’m just saying "hmmm." When a $120 billion company with a P/E near 100 continues flying on both good news and bad, something’s just not right.
Normally, I’d agree wholeheartedly.
But not in this case.
What Seth is missing is that GOOG (and everyone else in online advertising) is not reacting to either good or bad news but, rather, performance… performance being driven by the one of the biggest — and most obvious — transitions from traditional-to-digital.
With $400-$600 billion out for grabs, Google, Yahoo, and the MSN division will be $20 billion entities before anyone (including Seth) knows it.
P.S.  Kinda the same thing as Apple is going through — is AAPL ridiculously over-priced or did Apple just figure out how to distribute copyrighted material in a digital world and is part of a much bigger movement?

Best Description By The Mad Money Guy

Posted: December 13, 2005 in Business
You either love Jim Cramer or hate him.
Either way, the host of CNBC’s Mad Money had one of the best descriptions of why GOOG (and everyone else in online advertising) will succeed:
     Google allows "everybody to have every bit of information at their fingertips around the world" for free, he said, and advertisers are able to target their ads precisely.

It’s the "greatest value proposition," he said, adding that Google will wipe out every section of the newspaper.


Where’s Ross Perot when you need someone to make a giant sucking sound noise?

All the headlines for INTC’s mid-quarter review were negative.
Buried at the bottom of one of the negative stories was the following:
Cody Acree, an analyst with Stifel Nicolaus, said that Intel’s problem stems from its inability to produce enough computer chips to meet demand.
"They are capacity constrained so that there’s not much ability to ship more than they’ve already shipped," Acree said, adding that the company’s strong third quarter probably took some business from the fourth quarter.
See the error?
INTC is getting whacked for selling 100% of what it’s making.
Usually, that’s a pretty good thing.
My conclusion: AMD isn’t gaining marketshare per se, rather, the market is growing faster than anyone guessed and vendors are turning to secondary suppliers like AMD.
I want to hammer INTC for bad capacity planning but it wasn’t so long ago that they were battling inventory issues. No doubt, there’s a "feast or famine" factor here.
Bottomline: Demand that catches everyone by surprise is good news for overall tech investing.
My telltale question: Is AMD is selling 100% of what it is making?
Not that I’ve heard.
Which means when INTC brings on more capacity, the pie will return to normal — and that will be good news for INTC investing, too.

Do I Hear 20%?

Posted: December 5, 2005 in Uncategorized

Cody Willard of just wrote a piece about online advertising

The gem:

     "But Internet advertising accounts for less than 10% of all advertising sales now. That percentage will be going to 20% in the next few years and will eventually hit 50% and more in the decades to come."


20% means an online market potential of $80-$120 billion before the end of the decade… with the lion share going to Google, Yahoo, and MSN.

That’s why Google and Yahoo are going to be at least $20 billion companies before anyone knows it… and why Microsoft just jumped into the online ad game with both feet.

As they say in that country song, "That’s my story and I’m sticking to it."
I’m referring to, of course, my Sept 8th prediction that the Dow will top 11,958.36 by year end. 
That was when the Dow was at 10,596, a seemingly insurmountable distance.
Feels a bit different today.  Dec 1st close was 10,913, up 107. 
Just need 10 more days like today.
Easy, eh? <grin><groan>