Was I Wrong In My Prediction… ?

Posted: January 30, 2006 in Uncategorized
Back on Sept 8th, I made a "bold" prediction that the Dow would top 11,958.36.
 
I based this on an amazingly interesting trend… that the Dow has had killer performances in years ending in "5" since 1905… double digit growth each and every decade… a whopping 34.6% average gain.
 
Turns out, 2005 was a dud.  As was my prediction.
 
Or was it?
 
Let’s look at the rest of the world in 2005:
 
     France        23.4%
     Germany       27.1%
     Italy         15.5%
     Japan         40.2%
     UK            16.7%
     ——————-
     Average       24.6%
 
 
The rest of the world performed like the US should have… but didn’t.
 
What gives?
 
Who knows, I don’t.  Could be a number of very complicated reasons.
 
Or, maybe just a simple observation:  Are we finally — really, truly — a more globalized economy these days?
 
Damn, I should have thought more globally when I made my prediction… ! <grin><groan>
 
 
P.S.  I took these figures off a badly faxed copy of the Wall Street Journal so I apologize if I’m reading any of the numbers incorrectly.  Anyone know a website that tracks yearly global market indexes?
 
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