Archive for May, 2007

Everyone is saying that the departure of YHOO’s CTO is a negative.
 
I say, the search technology team on YHOO’s field isn’t winning… or, rather, it’s years behind where it should be. 
 
There are two main people responsible for this:  CEO and CTO.
 
As brutal as this sounds, half the house cleaning is done.
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GOOG Cheap?

Posted: May 29, 2007 in Uncategorized
Not sure if anyone has noticed, but there’s been a slow but steady stream of GOOG analysts commenting on — gasp — how cheap GOOG stock is… that GOOG has been effectively trading sideways since Jan 2006 (with a lot of high’s and low’s in-between). 
 
 
My take:  I think the optics of being a $400-$500 stock are hurting GOOG right now.
 
If GOOG was trading at $50 today, would anyone even blink if it went to $60 or $70?  Not with its growth rates.
 
On the other hand, a leap from $500 to $600 or $700 seems massive.
 
I used to hate the fact that GOOG never split.  But then I changed my mind:  I thought it was brilliant up to $1,000 because each century mark GOOG breaks up to $1,000 brings a flood of new press.  (Past $1,000, that’s a different story… going from $500 to $600 is a big thing… but going from $1,000 to $1,100 really isn’t.)
 
Now, well, I may re-think my re-think.
 
In any event, after years of people screaming how expensive GOOG is, this is certainly an interesting turn.  GOOG has been held down by optics so long that maybe it’s finally time for it to pop with a vengeance?

Saw Ball, Hit Ball

Posted: May 28, 2007 in Uncategorized
Wow.  Microsoft did it.  They saw ball.  They hit ball.  Belated congrats to Microsoft for pulling the trigger on the massive $6 billion aQuantive deal.
 
With this said, this acquisition is not game changing.  YHOO would be.  I suspect it will take a few more quarters of GOOG continuing to pull away from both MSFT and YHOO to get them to realize this, though.
Almost two years ago, my wife Laurie and I were in a high-end shoe store which she absolutely, head over heels fell in love with.
 
I looked around and said, "I don’t know what the big deal is, you can do this."
 
And do this she did!
 
Giant kudos to Laurie and her business partner Sara — a lot of people dream… Laurie and Sara made it a reality by opening the most exclusive footwear and accessories boutique in the entire Silicon Valley!
 
If you are a woman, this will be a religious experience.  Trust me!
 
Head Over Heels is located at 887 Santa Cruz Avenue, Menlo Park, CA.  (Right next to Draeger’s Market and Peet’s Coffee.) 
 
(We’ll be selling online in the next few weeks.  Do you think I’d be involved with something that wasn’t?  <smile>)

See Ball, Hit Ball

Posted: May 10, 2007 in Uncategorized
Slumping baseball players tend to overthink things, which messes them up even more.
 
Good coaches usually pull them aside and say, "Hey.  See ball.  Hit ball."
 
When YHOO and MSFT announced earnings over the last few weeks, I called up a friend at Microsoft and said, "well, that’s it… GOOG is pulling so far ahead — so far away — that MSFT needs to buy YHOO as soon as possible."
 
Why?
 
Why not? 
 
GOOG would.  That’s what they did with YouTube.  That’s what they did with DoubleClick.
GOOG just doesn’t overcomplicate things.  See ball.  Hit ball.
 
On the other hand, lots of articles since Friday’s "rumor" chronicling (complicating?) why MSFT shouldn’t buy YHOO.  I can only imagine these articles making decision makers at MSFT feel more comfortable not pulling the trigger.
 
But here’s a great quote from Goldman Sachs analyst Anthony Noto that I think sums it up best:
 
     "We believe that across advertising, Yahoo! is the only game-changing acquisition for Microsoft."
 
Or, said another way, the $1.6 billion MSFT could have paid for Overture is looking pretty damn cheap now.