AAPL December 2014 vs. January 2015

Posted: December 31, 2014 in Apple, Business, Farros, iOS, Royal

People say that people are waiting until the new year to sell AAPL… which makes some sense in that capital gains can be deferred by a year… but a few things trouble me about this conventional wisdom.

First, your average AAPL investor is in it for the long haul… so selling, regardless of the timing, is generally something they don’t consider.

Next, we had three big dips in December… the flash crash… a big one a few weeks ago (with AAPL trading down to 106)… and the one we just finished the 2014 with (to 110).  Telling, of course, that each successive dip was shallower (as a percentage) than the previous dip.

So here’s what I think is happening:  Big funds cashed out of AAPL in December… so they could lock in profits… so they could lock in their bonuses.

And here’s what I think is going to happen:  While there might actually be some minor tax-planned selling in January, I believe those same funds that sold AAPL in December (to lock in bonuses) won’t be able to stay away from the anticipation of blow out earnings for AAPL in January.

So, look for AAPL to rise in January.

P.S.  Hope next year is the very best 2015 ever for everyone!

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