Archive for December, 2018

About three months ago I wrote a piece about how important MSFT earnings were becoming again… that after a decade+ of being somewhat not relevant, Microsoft was, once again, highly relevant.

Included in that was the following tidbit:

Adobe reaffirmed guidance last week… which I believe single-handled stopped the market from another 5-10% slide… since everyone was/is feeling like we’ve driven off a cliff… given tariffs… and global tensions… and interest rate hikes… and Trump acting decidedly unpresidential most of the time.

I remember the situation well… everything felt incredibly bleak.  The pounding was relentless, like a nail going into a 2×4.

And then came Adobe’s October earnings call.  Like a lone superhero standing up to unfathomable forces, Adobe courageously — single-handedly — stopped the downward onslaught… simply by saying, “hey, we don’t know what all the negative fuss is about, our business is still growing gangbusters… so much so that we’ll even reaffirm our bullish projections going forward.”

Take that, dastardly downward spiral!

Well, fast forward three months.  Things feel better… but there’s still so much uncertainty and negativity… much justified… but a lot not.  The result has been a violent trading pattern of sideways volatility.  Way up one day.  Way down the next.  Or even way up at the beginning of a day, only to be way down by the end.  And visa versa.

So with Adobe’s earnings call after the market today, could Adobe play superhero again and give the market a second shot in the arm?

My investment fundamentals are still in place — oil is behaving… as are interest rates — so I believe this could be the case.

Guess we’ll see in about four hours.

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There is a lot I don’t like about our president.

However, his tweet this morning reveals one of the things I love about the guy… that with new data, he can bypass a bunch of time-wasting politics and thrust a critical issue into the limelight in a moment’s notice:

I am certain that, at some time in the future, President Xi and I, together with President Putin of Russia, will start talking about a meaningful halt to what has become a major and uncontrollable Arms Race. The U.S. spent 716 Billion Dollars this year. Crazy!

What’s the new data?  Maybe someone told Trump the deficit projections… driven in large part by almost $6 TRILLION in military spending since 2001?

I’ve long thought we spend a ridiculous, INSANE amount of money on the military.

We can pretty much bury the entire planet knee deep in nukes… do we really need to spend some 20% of budget on more superfluous weaponry?

Spending half as much… even a third as much… would still make us the biggest military spender in the world.

Good for Trump to bring this issue front & center…

… which is sure to confound both his greatest skeptics AND supporters!  :)

The market is getting rocked by giants swings of volatility.  When it goes up, everything is just the b-e-s-t ever!  And when it goes down, everything is just the worst, worst, worst!

It’s hard not to get caught up in the wash.

Two fundamental emotions drive investing and the stock market:  Greed and Fear.

Greed that you want even more… and fear that you’ll lose everything.

We had an interesting debate the other night:  What’s stronger?

For my money:  Greed.

Because the people involved in the stock market are a self-selecting group… they are, by nature, aggressors.  They want better food… better clothes… better cars… better houses.

So the natural bias of the people that make up the market — over the long run — is up.

That thought gives me a bit of comfort as we watch the market chunk lower.

In many ways, Gordon Gekko did have it right, right?

P.S.  I think this also has to do with ever-increasing population as well… as in, the more people we have, the more things that get bought, benefiting public companies.  But this concept is for a different post.  :)