Archive for the ‘Apple’ Category

I get there is a lot screwed up about the Chinese stock market… top of which is government intervention.

However, there’s just something extra weird about the Chinese stock market “bust.”

As in, it happened so fast, I wonder how people even noticed?

Most bubbles take years to inflate.  That is significant because the longer something is inflating, the more people get sucked into the action that eventually get hurt.

But the bubble portion of the Chinese Shanghai market rose & fell within a few months… that’s like the blink of an eye.

Sure, over the last year the Shanghai has about doubled… and it’s reasonably to call that frothy.  But how about over the last five years?  It’s only up about 30% — TOTAL — for an economy that has been growing in double digits.

In contrast, most of the U.S. indices have about doubled during that same five years… for an economy that has only had low single-digit growth.

With a longer-term perspective, can we really say China’s stock market didn’t deserve at least some kind of fractional growth?  

But what is the effect on Chinese consumers?

Even with the recent fall, the Shanghai is still up over about a third year-to-date… which should make a lot of investors (not traders) still feel pretty good.

And to further minimize damage to the investing public, apparently 90% of Chinese families do not even own stocks.

So you wonder how a spike & “crash” that happened that quickly… that affects only a minority of buyers… and for the most part probably affects them in a positive way… could really wreck that much consumer buying havoc?

Of course, the reason I bring this up is because of AAPL… analysts are worried that Apple’s big Chinese growth engine is going to come to a screeching halt.

I just don’t see it.

Note that after our last two stock market crashes in the U.S. — and despite unemployment — spending actually went up.  Cheap energy was the reason… which we have now again.

So while I don’t disagree that the Chinese stock market — and the Chinese economy for that matter — may be really screwed up, I wonder if those people bailing on AAPL aren’t looking at this all wrong?

One of the raps on AAPL is that everyone and their mother owns it… as in, there’s no one left to buy it… and if that is the case, how does the stock go up?

One way to evaluate ownership is to see how much hedge funds own.  Presumably, these are the world’s smartest investors.  Definitely, a lot of money is consolidated into a relatively few hands and their purchases tend to move the stock price needle (so to speak).

From the latest data, hedge funds collectively own 5.8% of all publicly traded companies.

But, together, they only own about 2.9% of AAPL… 50% underweight the market.

That makes sense.  Money people rang the cash register after the terrific 2014 run.  After all, they don’t get bonuses unless they book profit.

But even that 2.9% figure is skewed.  Turns out a big chunk of hedge fund ownership is held by Carl Icahn… which means that net Icahn, most hedge funds own even less of Apple…

… which means there are definitely still impactful potential buyers for Apple on the sidelines.

And why would they buy?

Lots of good business reasons… but probably the biggest is the ole’ swinging pendulum… like a moth to a flame, they’re all looking how “cheap” AAPL is… how exciting the upcoming iPhone upgrade cycle will be… maybe the introduction of a real, live iOS TV (i.e., my daughter spending a lot of money on TV apps like she does on iPhone apps)… and they won’t be able to resist… they’ll start piling into AAPL… again.

Everyone expects Apple to announce mind-boggling blow-out earnings tomorrow after the market closes.

Normally I would look at that as a strong contrarian signal.

But while everyone is talking about blow-out earnings, the stock is acting opposite… almost as if it’s already pricing in inevitable disappointment.

So what’s a contrarian to do?

My guess is unless something shocking happens — like there were significant production problems that Apple somehow kept secret… which, given the exhaustive research and scrutiny Apple is put under, seems unlikely at this point (as in we would have already heard something) — things feel like they’ve been artificially set up to bounce…

… meaning, the stock should have made a slow ascent closer to its 52-week high… to around $116-$118… and even beyond into the early $120’s… but it hasn’t… it’s been trading at closer to $105-$106 as recently as last week… which means when people finally see that the mind-boggling blow-out earnings are real, we’ll see a bounce into an area where it should have been trading at all along.

So, as weird as this is to say:  A contrarian view about the market’s contrarian view.

People say that people are waiting until the new year to sell AAPL… which makes some sense in that capital gains can be deferred by a year… but a few things trouble me about this conventional wisdom.

First, your average AAPL investor is in it for the long haul… so selling, regardless of the timing, is generally something they don’t consider.

Next, we had three big dips in December… the flash crash… a big one a few weeks ago (with AAPL trading down to 106)… and the one we just finished the 2014 with (to 110).  Telling, of course, that each successive dip was shallower (as a percentage) than the previous dip.

So here’s what I think is happening:  Big funds cashed out of AAPL in December… so they could lock in profits… so they could lock in their bonuses.

And here’s what I think is going to happen:  While there might actually be some minor tax-planned selling in January, I believe those same funds that sold AAPL in December (to lock in bonuses) won’t be able to stay away from the anticipation of blow out earnings for AAPL in January.

So, look for AAPL to rise in January.

P.S.  Hope next year is the very best 2015 ever for everyone!

Wow.  AAPL flash crashed at 6:51am pst this morning.

Within a minute, AAPL dropped almost 8 points… an almost 7% decline in the highest-valued company in the world.  That deserves a second wow.

It wasn’t based on news…

… because (1) the news on AAPL today was neutral.  While Adam Parker of Morgan Stanley was conservatively trimming his position in all of tech*, including AAPL… Barclays was raising its target to $140…

… and (2) all the news came out before the market opened… so presumably AAPL should have seen selling pressure out-of-the-gate, which it did not.

Instead, all the major selling happened during a 60-second slice of time… at precisely 6:51am pst… clearly the fingerprint of algorithmic trading.

There is chatter that the dive happened because someone tried to sell over six million shares at once… that’s about 10% of AAPL’s average daily volume… so that could have indeed mucked things up.

However, let’s be real:  That’s about a $700 MILLION dollar order… I’m pretty sure someone isn’t panic selling that by themselves on E*Trade… every professional in the world would know to s-l-0-w-l-y sell those shares over a period of time so as NOT to spook the market and therefore maximize the sales price.

I think this gets chalked up to a flash crash… a horrible, gut-wrenching by-product of modern-day “high frequency trading”… essentially computers trying to outdo computers making trades.  Not for the faint of heart.

Note that AAPL had cut its losses by more than half at the close… and if something truly systemic doesn’t get announced (as in, Apple issuing a profit warning or something), then we could see it retrace upward, maybe even this week… and helping this is yet another target raise tonight, this time by Canaccord Genuity (to $135 from $120)… so a nice potential trading pop may be set up for those that think that way.

*  Interesting that just last week Katy Huberty — of the very same Morgan Stanley — raised AAPL’s target to $126.  The lesson?  A bank can have multiple opinion makers… so it’s important to pay attention!

On May 30th of this year… when AAPL was at $633 ($90.42 split adjusted), I wrote the following:

Heard It Here First: Apple To $833… Err, I Mean $119

Technically, AAPL hit an interday high of $119.75 today, about six months after I penned that estimate.

I can’t remember what the average analyst estimate was at the time… but I believe it was somewhere around $700 or so (about $100 split adjusted).

When I made my estimate, though, I believe no one on The Street was higher than me… which is why I wrote the headline as I did.

More to the point:  Apple had already had a significant climb… from just below $400 (~$55) in June of 2013… to just above 500 (~$71) in January of 2014… to $633 (~$90) as of the end of May.

That’s a stunning climb for a company the size of Apple.  Most believed — rationally — that AAPL’s climbing was over.

What a difference a few quarters make.

APPL is now being driven by the very things we discussed back in May:  Underappreciated financials and a phenomenal pipeline of products.

I’m not ready to do a victory lap quite yet… but given today’s $119 interday price coincided with Apple becoming the very first company in history to have a market capitalization of $700 billion… I thought it was appropriate to at least mention.

Where does AAPL go from here?

Seems like professional analysts have been falling all over themselves in the last few months — and then again in the last week — to raise AAPL’s target.  Highest I’ve seen is Cantor Fitzgerald’s $143 target… unless, of course, you include Carl Icahn’s $203 figure. <smile>

With oil prices declining (which bodes well for all things Stock Market), I see the excitement over the continued insanely crazy demand for the iPhone 6 (and the earnings that will drive) taking us into the $120’s and possibly to $133

…which pathetically will still only reward phenomenal revenue and earning growth, the largest cash hoard in all of business-dom, and the strongest brand on the planet… with average valuation multiples.

This target is not as courageous as my last one… since it’s not such a big step from here.

What will allow us to take a bigger step?

iOS TV!  Where or where are you??

Misleading headlines happen all the time.

The big headline this morning from the Wall Street Journal:

Larger Apple iPad to Be Delayed

That’s what everyone picked up.  You might think, “wow, Apple’s really blowing it… yet another problem!”

If you read the article, though… or even just the subhead below the headline:

Apple Suppliers Concentrating on Meeting Demand for New iPhones

… you’ll find the real reason for a potential delay:  Because they’re swamped just trying to fill iPhone demand.

That’s a tremendous problem to have… unfortunately you’d never pick that up from the headline.

 

UPDATE:  Someone finally got it right!  From the BusinessInsider:

Apple Delays Plan To Make A Giant iPad So It Can Pump Out More iPhones

See the difference?  One suggests something negative… the other gets to the heart of the story — that overwhelming demand for the iPhone is causing Apple to juggle manufacturing — something that is clearly positive in the big picture.

 

What has always amazed me is how quickly — even viciously — sentiment can change.

Yesterday… even this morning… AAPL just felt… stuck.

Truth is, AAPL has been treading water for about three months now.

Certainly it’s had its share of outstanding news… but in the battle of bulls vs. bears, the bears were able to make the most out of some pretty flimsy stuff over the last month… iPhone’s bending (a grand total of 9 out of 10,000,000)… iOS 8 growing pains (pretty standard for any major new OS)… China getting delayed (until next week, not 2015 as they were suggesting)… downgrades that weren’t downgrades (someone lowered their target price above the current AAPL share price and still called it a downgrade?)… and so on.

I have to admit that yesterday, as the market was tanking, things felt a bit bleak.

Maybe that’s what they mean by “capitulation”?

Because… just a few hours later… AAPL now feels like it’s ready to e-x-p-l-o-d-e.

Here’s what is different:

(1)  Carl Icahn announced that he’s going to start being an activist pain-in-the-ass again.  Wall Street bulls love when he does that… and no one seems to do it better than Carl these days.

(2)  Apple — for the first time ever — is one of the top 5 suppliers of PC products.  Not bad for an after-thought business.

(3)  While the PC numbers aren’t the major earnings driver at Apple, I think a few analysts may take the time to raise overall estimates yet again… and this time include the somewhat overlooked fact that iPhone 6 demand in China is through the roof.

(4)  There’s a big announcement October 16th… most people think it’s to refresh the iPad and laptop line-up… but some news sources are saying that we’re about to get… Apple TV… !  Anyone that reads my blog know I think this is the next major, major, major revenue driver for Apple.

(5)  All of this drives (frenzies?) into AAPL earnings on Monday, October 20th… which is about as big an event as there is on Wall Street.

I always believe things swing too far in any one direction.  The last three weeks have been downers for the major markets.  Given the Fed comments today, I think we’ll see things swing in the other direction for a bit… which, adding that to the five points above, means I think AAPL is going to go on a mini tear.

 

 UPDATE:  Oppenheimer looks to be the first firm out-of-the-gate to raise AAPL estimates… and up price target to $115.

Could It Be… Apple TV?

Posted: October 8, 2014 in Apple, Apple TV, Business, Farros, iOS, Royal

Could it be… Apple TV?

From Investor’s Business Daily:

Long-rumored Apple TV app store could be reality soon

I’ve written about this for a while (here and here)…

… like AAPL did to the entire cellular phone industry, I’ve been eagerly awaiting when APPL turns the even-more-massive broadcast world on its head.

Maybe sooner than later?

 

There’s a great maxim in investing:  Buy the rumor and sell the news.

It means that things go up in anticipation… but when the news is released, reality usually puts the hype in perspective.

It will be interesting to see “if it’s different this time” (so to speak)… that is, if AAPL keeps rising after the expected September 9th iPhone 6 introduction.

I think it will.

Because Apple isn’t making just one introduction this year… they have more queued up… the iWatch… a payment system… and — hopefully before it’s too late — iOS TV.

Even the iPhone 6 could be a multiple shot… since everyone in the world will be speculating how many zillions they sold in the first 30 seconds of introduction… over the first weekend… by the end of the year… etc.

Guess we’ll know the answer soon enough.

GT Advanced, the supplier of “sapphire” — the revolutionarily tough new glass front that supposedly will be on the new iPhone — just up’ed the low end of their EPS range… from 8-18 cents to 12-18 cents.

Quizzicall, analyst Jonathan Dorsheimer from Canaccord Genuity just cut his price target on the company, stating he doesn’t see how GT Advanced can get there.

He could take this position for any number of good reasons.

But, what struck me is maybe he (and other analysts) are thinking different volumes than Apple and its suppliers are?

Certainly knowing whether revenue was adjusted upwards would give us a better tell in this situation… since that’s a better indication of Apple orders and not necessarily what happens operationally as GT Advanced tries to satisfy those orders.

Still, maybe Apple’s suppliers know something the analysts don’t right now?

 

Disclaimer:  I continue to be on an AAPL bandwagon… sorry in advance!

Just read a Motley Fool piece entitled, “Samsung’s CFO Said Something That Might Concern Apple Shareholders.

The article suggests that if Samsung is having mobile problems (particularly in emerging markets), maybe Apple could be, too?  That’s certainly a reasonable suggestion.

But, what the article doesn’t even contemplate is this:  Maybe Apple is gaining marketshare?

Wasn’t AAPL’s last quarter bolstered by some smart discounting in the emerging markets?  Maybe that good trend is continuing?

But from the bigger picture point-of-view:  Does anyone really think the mobile business is slowing down?

Like clothes and food and water, mobile is the one thing that everyone on the entire face of the planet really, truly might have to buy… and given the changing nature of technology, apparently buy over and over again.

Except, unlike clothes and food and water, which you can buy from literally about a zillion companies… it feels like you can only buy mobile from two places right now:  Apple and Samsung.

(Take a step back for a moment… that’s a pretty freakin’ amazing statement to make… no wonder Apple is the world’s most valuable company.)

So… when the CFO of Samsung says their quarter isn’t “look[ing] too good,” I kinda read that differently than Sam at The Motley Fool.  What this suggests to me is that AAPL’s upcoming quarter might not be as “throw away” as a lot of people think.  I believe AAPL has meandered downwards over the last few weeks exactly because of this type of erroneous thinking.

If Apple, indeed, pulls another rabbit out of its hat (like it did last quarter), that could set up another potential earnings pop… unless, of course, AAPL starts climbing in anticipation of that beforehand.

Either way, I think we’re higher by 5-10% after quarterly earnings than we are now ($91.98), especially after touching the $80’s last week.

We’ll see.

At the risk of becoming, “All Apple All The Time”… I will share with you the approach Daniel Sparks over at The Motley Fool just took evaluating AAPL:

As I attempted to make the doom-and-gloom case for Apple stock at $91.28, I kept running into walls.

So he threw it out to readers to chime in… here’s what I had to say:

 

I love the approach of this article, thank you.

I’m most worried about upcoming earnings.  Even though recent inventory checks seem bullish for the quarter, common sense tells me that people really may be waiting for the iPhone 6 (I am)… that’s gotta hurt on some level.

On a macro level, I’m worried about a war breaking out… or oil spiking to $140… or some such… which, of course, would spook the entire market.

I also worry that AAPL could shoot itself in the foot and make a dud product… Newton, anyone?  Specifically Apple could underpower the iPhone 6 relative to Android devices… they seem to do that… and at some point that will catch up with them.  I also think Apple made a user interface mistake taking away the “button” controls in iOS7… used to be easy to know what to tap… now it’s a bit more guesswork… the point is that Apple isn’t infallible and we may see things get more complex, not less… which could hurt adoption.

Finally, I worry about contrarian things… everybody really is jumping on the bandwagon… you know it’s bad when even an author has to resort to a bear challenge!

 

With all of that said, I can easily see — actually do see — the counters to all of these.

Fewer iPhone 5’s sold could just as easily mean even more iPhone 6’s will be sold.  In that contrarian way, a net positive.

When war breaks out, that reduces uncertainty… and generally speaking people look for a “flight to quality.”  Another net positive.  (Though, if oil misbehaves, that’s an entirely different story… that’s one to watch for the entire market.)

And Apple has already shown people a lot of iOS 8… and we know from the history of Apple laptops, Apple will figure out that smokin’ fast hardware will count in mobile, too.

More to the point:  AAPL has been in the penalty box for so long that the stock really has been depressed for years… if you normalize the terrific gains over the last year with the disappointing performance over the last few years, the chart kind of suggests Apple ends up where it should be… with the trajectory still aiming high and to the right.  Given I’m a big believer in the pendulum swinging too far in any direction, I don’t think we’re at “enough” yet… because even a mediocre iPhone 6 upgrade cycle will be staggering… and if you throw on an iWatch (personal health/info development platform), iTV (entertainment development platform), and maybe a massively-connected payment system and such…

… it’s just hard to see — given that Apple is one of the top brands and cash machines in the entire world — AAPL *crawling* into simple p/e parity with the rest of S&P as being crazy.

Just p/e parity alone represents about a 24% increase in stock price… or up to just under $115 a share.  For a company that arguably is the most relevant in its growing space, does $115 feel so far from where we are?  Not really.

Imagine what AAPL can be worth if actually gets a multiple it deserves… ?

Arg, I’m not sure I was very helpful to the bear case, sorry!

I haven’t been a fan of the iWatch.  Well, I mean, it’s not bad… I just didn’t see how it was going to move the needle.

Until now.

I had an epiphany.

It’s not a “watch”… duh… but a wearable computer… duh again.

My epiphany, though, was about why I would need a wearable computer:  Because I’m currently wearing pants without pockets… which is forcing me to actually carry my smart phone in my hand with me… and place it vulnerably on a table in a public place… to keep it in earshot because I need to hear an upcoming meeting reminder alert.

Bingo.

A wearable computer.  No more carrying in hand.  No more carrying bulgingly in a back pocket.  No more fishing it out of a purse.

Now I get it.  <smile>

A picture from the keynote at the World Wide Developers Conference… this doesn’t look like any iPhone Apple currently sells… and I haven’t seen a single report commenting on this new chassis… which was followed by a screen of a real iPhone 5S a few moments later.

Where are all the conspiracy theorists when you need them?! <smile>

WWDC

Hard not to get excited by all the Apple activity.  Very cool that one of the very oldest tech companies is still one of the most relevant.

Problem has been that Apple has been in the penalty box for the last few years… people have been waiting and waiting and waiting for the “next big thing.”

It’s Apple’s fault.  They’ve certainly teased the market… Tim Cook hasn’t been shy about saying how excited he is about R&D quarter after quarter after quarter.

Somehow it now feels a bit different.  Other key execs are now very publicly making rather bold statements:

Later this year, we’ve got the best product pipeline that I’ve seen in my 25 years at Apple.”  

— Eddy Cue, Apple’s senior vice president of internet software and service, at a tech conference on Wednesday

I’m not crazy that he qualified the statement with “Later this year”… something almost everyone reporting on the statement seemed to gloss over.  But I still think it’s a significant statement… and significant that there is finally some kind of timeframe associated with whatever the heck they’ve been working on for the last four years since the introduction of their last great product the iPad.

What might he mean?

The easy guess is the iPhone 6.  That upgrade cycle — probably the biggest in smart phone history — could easily take Apple to $700.

“Pipeline” is usually plural, though, meaning we should see other announcements before year’s end.

Tons of rehashed speculation about these — a payment system (big), better iCloud (bigger), and an iWatch (not so big) — but my personal favorite is that Apple really, truly, finally releases an iOS development platform for “Everything Not Mobile”… also being referred to today as the “Internet of Things.”  i.e., your family big screen TV — decidedly not a mobile device — will be the center of your home’s universe, including, of course, completely reinventing the home entertainment experience.  (Here and here.  And you thought Apple was only building a cool-looking TV. <smile>)

That kind of pipeline could make AAPL skip all the way up to $833.

Normally I would say a 200 point jump from today’s closing of 633 is unrealistic in any kind of short or medium-term timeframe.

But, here’s the thing about any big stock split — like the very one they’re doing next week that will most likely take the stock to $90 — $90 to $119 doesn’t seem like such a big moveon the contrary, that seems rather normal for a company on the move…

… which is why I think AAPL will surprise everyone, even the most hardcore fanboys out there… and especially those folks that like the number “33.” <g>

 

P.S.  My $833 number isn’t just simple psychology… there’s math behind it, too.

Measured by P/E, Apple has famously been trading at about a third discount to the average S&P stock for a couple years now — even below its own perennial average — that penalty box mentioned above.

Which I have to say is weird.  Even at its low point, Apple continued to be the strongest brand — and one of the most phenomenal cash-generating machines — in the world.  Surely that merits at least “average”?  Average gets AAPL into the 800’s.

But maybe more important, because of its massively spectacular run between 2004 and 2012 — something like a 50x return (!) — everyone on the planet ended up owning AAPL for a long time.

Two things were apparent:  (1) If everyone already owned Apple, no one was left to buy Apple… as in bid up the price.  And (2) people were naturally itching to take profits.

Given those factors, you only need a spark to send a stock in the opposite direction.  That spark — JOLT — came as Android proved to be a real competitor… and when Apple’s “next big thing” always seemed to be “next quarter”… quarter after quarter after quarter.

The confluence of all of those things meant that people had enough and bailed… resulting in an almost 50% decline in stock price… a thorough thrashing in 2012 and 2013.

Which gets me to my point:  There are now lots of buyers on the sidelines… and the stock will doubtlessly run as everyone ventures back in.  The fact that the stock will be “cheaper” after the split means even the little guy will feel like they can participate, too.

Indeed, momentum is a powerful force… both in nature and on Wall Street.

Which leads me to an investment philosophy I have that applies to this situation:  The pendulum always swings too far.  As I believe Apple stock will in this situation, too.

Psychologically speaking, all AAPL investors are used to AAPL trading in triple digits.

And because the stock price is so high, small percentage moves still look like big $ moves.

So while the pundits all claim that Apple’s upcoming stock split won’t really make any kind of material difference, I wonder if it might?

After the stock split AAPL will probably be trading in the 80’s or 90’s…

… and I just wonder if — by habit — AAPL shareholders (fanboys all of them) will quickly bid the price up to the split-adjusted $100 “psychological level”?

If that happens, that might be the equivalent of a really quick ride to the old $700 price.

Everyone has already heard that Apple is going to split their stock 7-for-1 on June 2.

People say that it really makes no difference, that it’s purely optical… other than it making some investors feel more affordable.

Well, psychologically speaking, isn’t that a big deal?

But there is also another terrific reason to split a stock… and it surprises me that no one ever discusses it.

Generally speaking, a small beat may or may not drive a stock’s price up… but a small miss is generally a disaster.  Which means a stock with a high price is much more likely to be negatively influenced by a small miss than a stock with a more reasonable price.

Here’s an example:

On April 16th, Google traded at $556.54.  They announced net earnings of $6.27 per share… vs. analysts expectations of $6.44 per share.

Looks like they missed by 17 cents and the stock was down more than $20 the next day… and has slipped even more in the weeks following… a shame for such a stellar quarter.

Had Google split its stock 10-to-1… such that the April 16th share price was $55.65… such that net earnings were $0.63 vs. an expectation of $0.64… because of rounding the miss would have only been one cent … certainly something that feels a lot less.

(There’s that word again — feels — lest we not forget that emotion is a huge factor in short term stock performance.)

Better, without being buried under more ominous headlines, the positive aspects of GOOG’s quarter — of which there were many — may have had more of a chance of being appreciated.

So, I’m very happy Apple is splitting its stock…

… EXCEPT… 7-to-1?  That’s the silliest ratio in the world… 10-to-1 would make TONS more sense… as well as allow for easy comparisons with previous years — we all can divide exactly by 10 in our heads… but I don’t know anyone that can divide 7 consistently in any kind of exact way.

I asked someone in Apple finance what was the story with 7-to-1 and got a, “I have no idea, either!” glance.

Ugh.  I wonder if it’s too late for Apple to fix this?  While I love that AAPL is splitting, it really is absolutely, positively the most silly split ratio ever.

I now completely, totally get why Apple shareholders are frustrated with Apple.

Almost one year ago I wrote, “So Now I Get Apple’s Next Revenue Driver… It Will Be Amazing.”  It was then that I figured out Apple TV wasn’t going to be “just another pretty TV”…

…but an iOS development platform that will allow throngs of smart and eager programmers to reinvent TV in the same way as the iPhone reinvented — turned on its head — the entire cell phone industry.

can’t wait for Apple to unleash the iOS programming masses on the TV business.

And I mean that literally… what the hell is Apple waiting for??

A year ago they had already been working on it for years.  They already have the development platform (iOS)… they already have the throngs of smart and eager programmers…

… every day delayed is another day Google/Android is getting its stuff together… as evidenced by the banging Apple has taken in iPhone marketshare over the last two years.

Apple, this is your next big thing.  It’s frustrating — actually, unbelievable — that you may actually squander this golden opportunity.