These days analysts are quick to draw comparisons between 2012 and 2008… in fact, many are saying we’re in for a repeat of global recession.
It’s tempting to do so. The world is still a mess… even more so.
There are a TON of similarities and differences between 2012 and 2008… economically, socially, politically, etc.
But, according to my past writings, one counts above all else.
Not unemployment. Not housing or subprime. Not currencies or sovereignties-on-the-brink.
But, the behavior of oil.
In June 2008, oil was skyrocketing. That made the cost of everything more expensive. It was the biggest, most giant, humongous tax on the entire world. So much so that the world said, “enough!” and stopped spending.
That’s when the engine of the world simply stopped.
When an engine stop, things stall. And that’s exactly what happen to the world in 2008. Bingo, global recession.
But that’s not happening right now. In June 2012, oil is falling.
If oil continues this trend, things will become a cheaper… just like at the end of 2008… in fact, if there are any notable similarities, it’s that one. Oil dropping in 2008 was the greatest stimulus in the world… hopefully falling oil prices provide a bit of a kick for us in 2012, too.
But, at the very least, if oil doesn’t spike, there shouldn’t be a cliff for us to go over quite yet.
That’s what I’ve been writing about for years. Guess it’s time to see if my oil theory holds water.
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