Go Long

RealMoney columnist James Altucher just put out a "Go Long and Strong for 2006" piece.

 

One of his foundation reasons for being bullish:  Internet advertising is driving down the cost of customer acquisition.  More customers means more corporate profits.

 

Another calibration point that online advertising is making meaningful — significant — headway against traditional advertising.

Startup Day at Microsoft

Just finished the lunch keynote at a really great event that Dan’l Lewin is putting on for startups in the Valley.  I put together 10 lessons on working with Microsoft… will elaborate on this soon.

Finally Someone to Punch in the Face

After five years of gnatting at flies (i.e., open source), it’s fun to watch MSFT finally have someone they can punch in the face again (i.e., Google).

 

No doubt, Microsoft does seem to do its best work when it’s in the ring, toe-to-toe, and considered the underdog.

 

Wonder who in Vegas will be the first to give odds?

15% is a Magic Number

I saw Mary Meeker of Morgan Stanley at a conference a while back and I asked her what percent of traditional advertising sales could online chew into this decade. 

 

I’ve often said that 10% was reasonable.

 

But, her response was an emphatic, "15%, falling off a log."

 

Was just reading a Motley Fool piece (the most excellent financial reporting anywhere) where it mentioned that Ford was going to spend 15% of its ad budget on the Internet to move more F-150 trucks.

 

Could the 15% number be real… and happening faster than any of us could really imagine?

 

I certainly think so.

 

Which would mean a worldwide online advertising market of $60-$90 billion (15% of $400-$600 billion).

 

Given online advertising was only $10 billion in 2004, this would mean this industry could really 6x-9x before the end of the decade.

 

All split primarily between GOOG, YHOO, and MSN.  (I’m assuming AOL gets swallowed up by one of those three.) 

 

That’s why MSN has jumped into this market with both feet — and GOOG and YHOO will become $20 billion companies before anyone realizes it.

Another Triangulation for a 4x

Everyone that reads this blog knows that I think the online advertising market is going to 4x to 9x by the end of the decade.

 

Turns out so does the managing director of Goldman Sachs’ high-tech group.

 

Lawrence Calcano told a crowd in Athens in October:

     "Only around 5 percent of advertising budgets are currently spent on Internet ads, he said, compared with 20 percent of consumers’ time spent online."

 

That sounds like at least a 4x to me.

 

And, given that online advertising is performanced based and immediately measurable — in other words, superior to traditional advertising — online advertising will most likely take more than its proportionate share.

 

Cool.