Facebook (FB): When Bad News Is Really Good News

After trading sideway for a few weeks — while the rest of the market was going up — Facebook (FB) started its end-of-quarter / ramp-to-earnings run last week… hitting a high of almost 172 just a few days ago.

Things tried to knock the stock backwards.  Earlier in the week some key execs left the company and FB open sharply down, only to rally back even stronger.

And on Friday news of a data breech hit, again hitting the stock hard.  While it hasn’t rallied back yet, it did close nicely off its lows.

My take on these seemingly bad news events?

Zuckerberg and Sandberg don’t lose people they don’t want to lose.  If some execs exited, there was probably a good business reason for it.

And, while a data breach is always concerning, it was only a small % of actual Facebook users and dealt with demographic-type of info — available in lots of places — nothing even close to sensitive passwords or credit card-type info.

The breach was so benign, security experts say there is no need to even change your password (about 1:30 into the linked video).  THAT’S about as benign as it gets.

On the flip side, Facebook says they think they jumped on it fast enough to stop anything from even happening… so in a race between companies and hackers, FB’s response time — including disclosing the problem — seems to have been outstanding… exactly the kind of response the government has been looking for.

So, this is the kind of bad news that I think presents a good buying opportunity.

With this said, I do think there’s a good chance FB will see some more weakness based on bad news circulating in the press this weekend.  However, I’m less worried about that downside risk than I am about missing the next leg up… because I believe there’s a better chance big money investors will find FB’s suppressed stock price irresistible going into earnings over the next few weeks.  In fact, the action over the last few weeks suggests they’ve already started to pile in.

Please remember that it was just a scarce few months ago FB was trading at 218 on its way to the 240 level.  At Friday’s close of 164 and change, FB is now trading at crashed levels.  And this is for a company that thoroughly dominates their space… with about the best financials on the planet.

Also, please remember that FB’s earnings last quarter were actually pretty good… they beat MONSTER expectations, which was no easy feat.

What tanked the stock was ultra, ultra conservative guidance… which is the way Wall Street says a big earnings beat could be in the making… which sounds like a good news thing to me.

Apple Support Horror Story: When Two-Step Activation Locks You Out Of Your Own iPhone

[This is an Apple iPhone Tech Support post.  Totally skip it unless two-step activation has locked you out of your iPhone… and if it has, this may be one of the most valuable posts you ever read!]

I’m writing this after about 10 hours of the most horrible customer services experiences I’ve ever had.  EVER.

I’m telling my story in hopes that Apple fix this… and to save others from the horror I went through.

Background:

I lost the ability to make or receive calls.  WIFI still worked so I was able to get text and email, which actually masked the problem for the first day or so.

Verizon said it had to do with upgrading to 10.3.3, that it could be mucking with the digital antennae or something, and that the solutions was to backup, wipe the phone, reinstall, then restore the backup.

So, I called Apple Support.  They concurred with Verizon and started walking me through the process.

What Apple Support did NOT do, however, was ask me if I was using two-step authentication AND whether I had a second trusted device.

Turns out when I turned on two-step authentication, I thought it was only naturally to designate my iPhone as my trusted device.  Sounds reasonable, right?

WRONG!

This turns out to be DEATH.  And incredibly irresponsible of the Apple Support folks that helped me!

Because when I wiped my phone and reinstalled from scratch, it meant I had to reactivate my iPhone with Verizon… but Verizon requires that I enter in my Apple ID and password and, as the second step of the two-step authentication, the six-digit code that Apple would send to my — you guessed it — inactive device!

I went down Apple’s recovery path… and the automated Apple process told me it would take a few days to add a second trusted device… “for my protection.”  When a few days came, it said it would take a few more.  Then a few more.  Then it said a WEEK!

Before I continue, I want to say that these time estimates were a BIG FAT LIE.  It just kept pushing the date out on me.

And, I want to say it doesn’t matter that Apple was doing all of this “for my protection”… I use my phone for work… and it can’t be non-functional for even a few days!

I literally almost gave up and just bought a new phone… because, after TEN (10) hours of Apple Support help, I wasn’t any closer to a solution.  And — please listen to this, Apple — I was damn close to considering an android, too.

I have no idea why I called Apple Support one more time.  Maybe because I was bleary eyed and wasn’t really thinking.  Maybe because I just wanted to yell at someone.  Maybe because I own Apple stock and just couldn’t believe I was really hung out to dry here.  But I did call one more time, and spoke to Ginger L… and — TO MY INCREDIBLE SURPRISE — she actually had heard of a clever work around for this situation.

And, what do you know, IT WORKED!

Bless Ginger L., she should be CEO of Apple!

Apple, PLEASE FIX THIS.  No customer should ever, ever, ever endure what I had to go through.  PLEASE!
The Ginger L. Solution:  How to activate an inactive device when Apple two-step authentication insists on sending the activation code to the inactive device

*  Plug your iPhone into a computer that has iTunes on it.

*  Log into iTunes and back up iPhone to the cloud or your computer.

*  Restore iPhone to a new phone… initialize phone just like it’s a new one (i.e., chose language, what time zone, WIFI, etc.)… BUT — AND THIS IS KEY — do NOT enter your Apple ID, keep choosing options that bypass Apple ID.

*  Activate your account (in my case, I had to call Verizon).

*  Test that your phone can send & receive calls and text messages.

*  From a computer, log into AppleID.Apple.com.

*  Enter Apple ID and password.

*  Apple will try to send you your second-step authorization code to Message but that won’t work yet.  Click the “I didn’t receive my code” link and choose the “Send text message” option.

*  IMPORTANT NOTE:  Respond to any other text messages you see… because once you restore your backup, you will lose those newly downloaded text messages.

*  Enter code and from your computer and follow the links/instructions to turn OFF two-step notification.

*  Plug your iPhone into your computer and from iTunes restore your backup.

*  Activate your iPhone again (again, for me  with a call to Verizon)… which may require you to enter your Apple ID and password… but WON’T require Apple sending you an second-step auth code to an inactive phone!

There, I just saved you 10 hours of customer support misery!

Don’t Back Down On Your Tariff Fight, President Trump! But If You Want To Win, You Must…

Dear President Trump–

I may be the only guy in American that loves what you are doing with tariffs.  (Please see here and here and here.)

And I love that you’re turning up the heat.

But, if you want to win this in our lifetimes OR until another president takes office (whichever comes first), you need to enlist the support of the rest of the commercialized world.

This might be difficult since you’re trying to create a level playing field with them, too…

… or, said another way, you’re hammering the rest of the world into submission as well.

But maybe you can pitch a win here.  Something like, “look at what we’re doing to China… so you know we can easily do that to you, too.  Net-net is you’re going to lose a little to us, it’s inevitable.  But opening up China isn’t… unless we go to China together… and if we do go together, we’ll both really, truly gain a huge new market, second largest in the world!”

To make this work, though, it has to be China vs. THE ENTIRE WORLD.

That’s because China is too proud to be “defeated” by just the U.S… and going it alone only forces them to act more defiantly… which includes them dragging things out in hopes of a political regime change… regardless of how long that takes.

So the only way to get this done in a reasonable time frame is to turn up the heat on the rest of the world… THEN, as a group, approach China.  This will allow China to compromise with dignity… because it won’t be perceived as a fight, rather, that “everyone” came together and “mutually” agreed to change, uhm, all the rules.

No loss of face for the Chinese.  100% victory for the world (and the U.S.).  Wrapped up before the next presidential election.

Tough timing but that’s what you have to do to bring this home.

Break a leg–

–Royal.

Don’t Back Down On Federal Wage Freeze, President Trump!

I read a business headline that almost made me cry with happiness:

“Federal workers’ raises canceled.  Trump says pay should be based on performance.”

(Source:  Palo Alto Daily Post, August 31, 2018)

I read some more on this and I almost cried in agony with the statistics that were cited:

When salaries and benefits are combined and averaged, public-sector workers earned $129,200 in 2016 while private-sector employees earned only a combined $70,700.

(Source:  AMI Newswire, September 12, 2018)

That’s a lot of crying!

Federal workers earn almost TWICE as much as private counterparts… and don’t even get me started on the productivity of the public sector vs. the private sector.  

And people wonder why our country is in such debt.  Jeez.

I also read where Trump may be reconsidering this wage freeze — because of the upcoming elections — for political considerations.

DON’T BACK DOWN, DONALD!  Automatic pay raises… that have nothing to do with job performance… that have been going on for year after year after year… while our national debt continues to spiral out-of-control… IS INSANE!

Future raises absolutely, positively should be earned, jut like they are for the rest of us in the real world.  I am now officially pissed that my tax dollars are going to fund such an idiotic compensation plan.

DON’T BACK DOWN, DONALD!

Farewell To Scott, My Brother-In-Law (1963-2018)

Sadly here is another farewell post.

My brother-in-law Scott died last week of a massive heart attack.  It was unexpected… though, it shouldn’t have been… he had both high blood pressure and high cholesterol… but, more significantly, a family history of heart disease.

Both arteries were totally blocked.  In this day and age, you would think someone would have told him to get a scan or something.  But that didn’t happen, making this situation extra tragic.

Scott led a simple life… simple in that, among all the people I know, he really knew what the meaning of life was:  Just laugh as much as you can.

That really was his goal in life.  He certainly was a hard worker… and a responsible person… and had his views on politics and the way things should be.  But Scott didn’t care that you thought he was a hard worker, a responsible person, or politically adept… as much as he just wanted to make you laugh… that was always his pay day.

Helping this was a contemporary and absolutely razor-like sense of humor.  More often than not, Scott was the source of laughter in whatever group he was in… a solemn church function or a rowdy boys’ night out.

In a world that’s sometimes not so easy, he was the kind of guy you wanted to be around because, regardless of your situation, he made life a bit more fun for you.

That was his gift to all who knew him… and to all that will miss him greatly.

Until we meet again.

 

Uh Oh, Is A New NRA Being Born?

I like guns.  But I don’t like the NRA… in the same way I don’t like most lobbyist groups.

I also like the military.  But I don’t like military spending… by some estimates a whopping 20% of our deficit-growing American budget.

To put that in perspective, we have enough nukes to bury the world many times over.

To put that in more practical terms, we spend more money on the military than the next SEVEN countries COMBINED.

So the last thing we need is more hawks in government.

Yet, Jeff Bezos just donated $10 million to a relatively new organization called “With Honor,” dedicated to electing military vets to office.

As our budget spirals out-of-control, I can’t think of a worse time to elect a more biased group of government officials.

I Understand The Flag Controversy But I Don’t Get It

I can’t tell if the flag has “codes” or not.

We appear to have them, but then I’ve also read where the Supreme Court overturned Flag Codes as unconstitutional a few years after the Pledge of Allegiance was deemed a violation of religious freedom, at least for non-military personnel.

Regardless, there are some things that I do know:

*  Kneeling is considered to be one of the most respectful acts in the world.

*  Colin Kaepernick’s protest was passive and peaceful, exactly what we all want to see in a protest.  He didn’t overturn any cars.  He didn’t bash the front windows of shop keepers.  He didn’t use hateful language.  He was just one guy in a sea of guys and all he did was kneel instead of stand.

*  There are lots of violations of Flag Codes that seem to go unmentioned, including the flag used in advertising (Section 8.i… there goes all the 4th of July marketing!) and the most ironic:  “The flag should never be carried flat or horizontally, but always aloft and free.”  (Section 8.c)  So everyone in a football stadium standing to respect the giant, HORIZONTAL flag covering the field is, in fact, disrespecting the flag.  The Kaep anger, in context, seems a bit hypocritical, no?

*  The NFL didn’t even require players to come out for the National Anthem until 2009, so it’s not like it was a long-standing traditional (pun intended!).

…AND…

I also know — as an employer — employees shouldn’t be doing personal things on company time.

So, ultimately, I don’t know why there’s a controversy.

If Colin Kaepernick — or any other American — wants to protest something… a freedom that we’ve fought wars over to protect… they should be allowed to do it peacefully… on their own time.

If they want to do it on company time, though, and what they’re protesting is not part of the job description, then they have the freedom to not do that job.

The NFL should have outlawed political expression after Week 3 of Kaepernick’s protest a few years back… in the same way they outlawed commercial expression in the 80’s… and it was a good thing they did, else every NFL player would look like a walking advertising billboard by now.

So maybe what everyone should really be upset about is why Roger Goodell, commissioner of the NFL, makes $40 million a year and can’t even put out a simple camp fire in his own backyard.

Farwell To My Grand Little Bro Bill Buckingham (1961-2018)

This is a post intended for Stanford Zetes… about the passing of a brother.  Feel free to read but you’ve been warned.

Bill Buckingham, my Grand Little Bro in the Zete House at Stanford, passed from pancreatic cancer after almost a five year battle.  He was just 57, a youngster as far as many of us are concerned.

The service was stunning, an outpouring of love and respect for Bill… we should all have such a well-deserved send off.

Of course I wasn’t surprised by it, Bill was a stud. Pledge Putnam said it best, he really was the definition of SoCal cool.

My Great Grand Little Bro Pledge Burke Dempsey was also stud enough to send a family portrait… see below… five generations at the Zete Luau… like it was yesterday, eh?

(Pictured above:  Knowlesey, me, Kip, Bill, and Burke.  Is that Mordy and Cubes in the background?)

Bill’s children gave a heart-wrenching send off… and included in one of the stories was our infamous Zete “eeeeeewwwwwwwww” call… apparently Bill used it from time to time (as I think we all do)… and when I asked his daughter after the service if she knew where that came from, she said she didn’t. She gave me a HUGE smile when I told her it was a Stanford Zete thing. “Now it all makes sense, he loved his time at Stanford and he always used that sound when something really happy happened.”

A final thought: Sitting in this cavernous, cathedral-sized church, with all the religious significance present in abundance and a holy, biblical spirit enveloping us all… as the service was concluding and the conclave of holy men beckoned us to look toward the heavens and raise our voices in a final, glorious hymn… all of a sudden, like out of no where — and I’m dead serious about this — a different song popped in my head… one that I haven’t thought about in a very long time. It was irreverent and blasphemous… and risking eternal expulsion, I said fuck it and sang:

A Zete he died, he went to hell
and climbed the fiery hill
He perched himself on a red hot coal
and smoked a lousy pill
And when the devil saw him there he said ‘be of good cheer,
for you’re among your brother Zetes
we’ll open a keg of beer!’

It just seemed like the right way to send off a good Zete… and a good man.

Bill’s passing shall not be forgotten.  We came into this world as a bunch of Zetes… we’re damn well sure going out as a bunch of Zetes, too.

In TKΦ.