The Difference Between Online and Offline

A holiday observation:  Don’t we always hear how bad holiday sales are going to be right about this time of year? 

 

Reports have just come in from Cyber Monday:  "Online shopping breaks record."  Up 21% from previous year.

 

Now you know the difference between online and offline momentum.

 

Or — to use an old popular phrase — what that giant sucking sound you hear is.

The End-Of-Quarter GOOG Climb

I did a post yesterday about general quarterly trading patterns for upwardly moving companies.

 

GOOG, of course, is one of those companies.

 

Lost in all the doom-and-gloom market noise, Comscore just reported that Google continues to gain marketshare in search. 

 

Whenever I see this kind of positive monthly GOOG report, it always gives me more confidence going into GOOG’s quarter-end.

 

Which — as you can imagine — is why I’m part of the, "let-all-the-emotion-work-its-way-out-of-trading-then-step-in-for-bargains" crowd.

 

P.S.  Think BIDU in this regard, too.

Market’s Down… Bottom’s Up!

Can’t wait for my wife to read that headline — living through the volatile 00’s has turn that phrase into one of our favorite play-on-words.

 

Truth is, predicting a bottom is always difficult.

 

But, upwardly moving companies do fall into a general quarterly trading pattern: 

 

     — Strong into the quarterly announcement

     — Kind of a stall, then a drop through the mid-quarter

     — A build up during the last month of the quarter

     — Strong into the quarterly announcement

     — Rinse.  Repeat.

What A Few Weeks

Been traveling a lot over the last few weeks. 

 

Wow, what a few weeks it has been.

 

As painful as the recent correction has been, keep repeating to yourself:  "It’s healthy. It’s healthy. It’s Healthy." 

 

(Then, for all of you Animal House fans, you can also think, "Ouch.  Thank you, sir.  May I please have another, sir?")

GOOG At $1,000?

I sooo want to move my two-year price target for GOOG to $1,000.

 

But I can’t.

 

Not because I don’t think it’s going to continue to rise…  I see only enthusiasm on the horizon… we’re in the strongest time of year… online continues to eat offline’s lunch… China is only getting hotter… the 2008 Summer Olympics are always strong advertising events… so are the 2008 elections… and so on.

 

No, I can’t because — so far — my simple revenue assumptions have been surprising close to reality… so even if I throw in a factor for "optimistic momentum", I can only get to $900.

 

Just like my $700 call, a $900 two-year price target puts my estimate higher than everyone else on The Street (current highest is $850) — which allows me to retain the title of the, "most optimistic guy in the world about online advertising." <smile>

 

But, it does pain me that I can’t make the first $1,000 call right now.  Guess the law of large numbers is finally kicking in for GOOG.

 

20 NOV UPDATE:  Heath Terry at Credit Suisse Group just raised his target to $900.

GOOG Crosses $700

GOOG beat my 24-month $700 target in about 4 months.  Closed yesterday at $707. 

 

Articles here, here, and pretty much everywhere (as we’ve discussed, you can’t buy this kind of press).

 

Wow.