Time To See If Contrarian Theory Works In Oil

OPEC just announced some “kinda” agreement about production levels and freeze.

Oil just skyrocketed on the potential “news” (up 5.3% @ $47.05 for the Nov ’16 contract).

Everyone has been waiting for this moment… a signal from OPEC that the strategy it’s employed the last few years is changing.

Everyone — 100% of all analysts — have come out saying this will put a floor under oil prices now.

The contrarian in me says when everyone thinks one way, the opposite usually happens.

What could possibly go wrong?

Maybe this inspires more U.S. shale oil to be produced… that was one of the reasons oil dropped from the triple digits not so long ago.

Maybe the “cuts” aren’t real cuts, just natural scale-back given the time of year (between summer driving and winter heating)… so any temporary euphoria in the market will soon get replaced with the commonsense observation that everyone is still pumping at near-record levels.

Maybe it’s just all of the OPEC members playing games with each other — and the world — again.

Who knows, but it will be interesting to see!

 

(I Think) The Real Reason Why Bochy Pulled Bum: Good Parenting

My post below (“The Definition Of Insanity: Bruce Bochy Bullpen Management“) includes the following paragraphs:

Why he pulled Madison Bumgarner in the 7th — with 10 strike-outs, no walks, and a ONE HITTER going — is beyond all baseball reasoning.

The fact that he won’t share his reasons why he did this — he offered all of:  “I said we talked. I’ll leave it at that.” — is simply an irresponsible cop-out.

Sorry, after the September he’s managed, we fans deserve more than that.

I finally heard a reason that, while hard to swallow, does makes everything make sense… and if you’re a parent with a teenager, it makes doubly sense:  Bochy might have had some parenting to do.

I think Bochy told Bum something like, “you have a history with Puig but we need you on the mound tonight so don’t lose your head… because if you do, I won’t hesitate to pull you.”

Any good parent knows you have to set clear boundaries for your children… articulate clear consequences… and take immediate action if necessary.

I think that’s what happened.

That’s the only explanation that explains everything, including Bochy’s reluctance to discuss after the game… including former Giant and current Giant Broadcaster Duane Kuiper’s “frosty” demeanor on his usually even-keeled radio spot the next morning.  Sometimes family matters need to be kept within the family.

I still think the way Bochy is managing the bullpen is insane.

And, like all parents, Bochy is probably wishing he articulated some other consequence, especially in such a pivotal game.

But, I respect the hell out of him for sticking to his parenting guns if, indeed, that was the case.

The Definition Of Insanity: Bruce Bochy Bullpen Management

They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome.

I’d say FIVE blown leads in the 9th inning — using the same, completely ineffective bullpen management — qualifies.

I obviously — and painfully — misspoke in my “One Other Thing I Know” post below.  I want to say last night’s loss to the Dodgers — with the Giants winning by one run going into the bottom of the 9th — was a terrible, horrible gut punch…

… but, the truth is, it’s no worse than our other terrible, horrible, gut-punching 9th inning losses in September.

Giants Manager Bruce Bochy, sadly, is insane.

Why he pulled Madison Bumgarner in the 7th — with 10 strike-outs, no walks, and a ONE HITTER going — is beyond all baseball reasoning.

The fact that he won’t share his reasons why he did this — he offered all of:  “I said we talked. I’ll leave it at that.” — is simply an irresponsible cop-out.

Sorry, after the September he’s managed, we fans deserve more than that.

I’m only a fan.  But it seems pretty obvious to me that (1) the Giants don’t have a reliable bullpen, so (2) the Giants should have been playing September like we’re in sudden death — because WE ARE — so (3) they needed to use STARTERS to close games, and (4) Bochy needs to abandoned his ineffective bullpen platooning and if a reliever is getting the job done (like Smith was in the 8th inning), just let him keep throwing.  Duh!

Call a spade a spade:  Bochy may be a Hall of Fame manager, but he’s completely mismanaged the Giants down the stretch.

Boch, please get your stuff together before it’s too late!

One Other Thing I Know

When the Giants bullpen blew yet another save a few weeks back, I suggested that the Giants trash their entire bullpen and have starters close games.

After all, desperate times called for desperate measures.

Knowledgeable baseball people scoffed, however.

Two weeks ago the Giants looked to have a firm grasp on at least a wild card spot.

Then they blew FOUR 9TH INNING LEADS in about a dozen games.

Now, they’re barely hanging on to the last wild cards spot by a thread.

For those of you who aren’t baseball fans, that is a COLOSSAL, COLOSSAL fail.

Finally, Giants Manager Bruce Bochy got a clue… that he better play these last dozen or so games LIKE THEY’RE PLAYOFF GAMES… and he used a starter last night to close a game.

It wasn’t a save situation… the Giants were already down by 3 runs.  Still, it was nice to see an experienced hand take the ball… and shut the door.

Desperate times called for desperate measures.  That’s Management 101 and that should have been initiated two weeks ago.

Never too late, though, to do the right thing.

There Are Some Things I Know

There are some things I know.

Like what Klay Thompson did to Giants fans — his fans — was insulting.  Like whoever has the most to lose in a Giant/Dodger game loses.

Suddenly, I know everything is going to be alright.

Because after the last, disastrous two month — where the Giants went from the best record in all of baseball pre-AllStar break… to the worst record in all of baseball post-All Star break — the Dodgers now have more to lose than the Giants.

The Dodgers are in first place, seemingly in complete control of the division.

The Giants, on the other hand, have been left on the side of the road for dead.

Finally, the Giants have ’em right where they want ’em.

The Giants get their mojo back tonight.  They play the Dodgers.  At Dodger Stadium.  With the Dodger’s ace on the hill.  With the Dodgers owning what appears to be a seemingly insurmountable lead in the National League West.

It can’t get any more perfect for the Giants.

Heartbreak.  That’s just the way this rivalry works, Mr. Thompson.

 

GAME UPDATE:  Everything was going according to this rivalry’s cosmic plan… and then the only thing that can trump a cosmic plan happened… STUPIDITY!  See “The Definition Of Insanity: Bruce Bochy Bullpen Management” post above.  Ugh!